A bit of uncertainty has been washed out of the NFL now that we’ve seen the teams play one game, but Week 1 trends don’t necessarily translate to the rest of the season. There’s still opportunity to find high value athletes that’ll pay off with the right Picks. Here are a few options we like for Week 2.
Carson Palmer (QB) has at least 325 passing yards.
Yes, the Chicago Bears held Aaron Rodgers to 189 passing yards last week, and yes, Palmer is an inferior quarterback in a less-heralded offense. But Chicago’s success against the pass last week was an anomaly. Rodgers still threw for three touchdowns and completed 18 of his 23 passes (78.3 percent).
The Bears’ pass defense is a porous and the adjustment to a 3-4 defense will take time. Meanwhile, Palmer pilots an efficient offense in Arizona that is left without much of a running game after Andre Ellington’s injury last week. Palmer will exploit Chicago through the air with receivers Larry Fitzgerald and second-year man John Brown.
Suggestion: 25 Points x 2.86 Offer = 71.50 Return
Mark Ingram (RB) has at least 100 rushing yards.
The game flow should set up perfectly for Ingram, even though he is coming off a game in which he had just nine carries for 24 yards. Ingram did split carries with Khiry Robinson last week – a concern – but he’s also the guy they planned to feature as they went to more of a ball-control offense this season.
Last week, New Orleans turned to Drew Brees as they tried to keep up with the Cardinals, negating Ingram’s impact. This week, Ingram will have his chances to close out the game on the ground, which could pay off—a moderate offer paired with big Points could get you close to the century mark with just one Pick.
Suggestion: 25 Points x 3.51 Offer = 87.75 Return
Calvin Johnson (WR) will have fewer receiving yards than John Brown (WR)
Sure, after last week’s slow game (four targets, two catches, 39 yards) Detroit will be looking to get the ball to Johnson, and it’s true that Megatron had some big games against the Minnesota Vikings in the past (averages 71.2 yards per game in 13 career match ups).
But this is a different Minnesota defense with Xavier Rhodes matching up against Johnson. In his only appearance against the Vikings last season, Johnson was held to 53 receiving yards. The previous season he only had 37 receiving yards in one game.
Meanwhile, Brown is emerging in his second season with the Cardinals. He averaged 14.5 yards per catch as a rookie and is stepping up with a bigger role as Michael Floyd deals with injuries. Last week, Brown caught four of his seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, and you already know how bad Chicago’s pass defense is likely to be. It’s a slightly risky Pick, but with an offer of 5, you can find some real value here.
Suggestion: 10 Points x 6.45 Offer = 64.50 Return
Aaron Donald (DEF) and Chris Long (DEF) combine for at least two sacks
Donald had two sacks of Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson last week, while Long was held without a sack. But the two will be lining up against the middle and right side of the Washington Redskins’ offensive line and a quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who can be a mess if pressured.
Donald is a premier interior pass rusher. Long doesn’t put up the sack numbers Robert Quinn does on the other side of St. Louis’ defensive line, but Long will also be facing Washington rookie Brandon Scherff and second-year tackle Morgan Moses, giving him plenty of chances to get to Cousins. The Rams defense should dominate on Sunday.
Suggestion: 15 Points x 5.00 Offer = 75.00 Return
Chris Ivory (RB) will have at least 27 carries
Ivory had a big game against Cleveland with 91 yards rushing and two touchdowns in the opener—and this was while splitting carries with Bilal Powell.
The New York Jets will try to follow a similar script and keep the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands on Monday night. Ivory will have at least 27 carries on the night, which will be the highest total of any running this season. It should pay off with some big Points.
Suggestion: 25 Points x 4.00 Offer = 100.00 Return